P(realized winner): winner-referenced closing VWAP over executed fills, not order-book depth
Outcome
YES
Divergence
—
|pClose − y|
Brier contribution
—
Resolution lag— (expected on upsets / thin markets)
pClose is a closing VWAP over executed fills, not order-book depth. A high resolution-lag null-rate is expected (upsets / thin markets).
Resolution criteria
ancillaryText · rendered from on-chain ancillaryData
q: title: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 1.5, description: In the upcoming La Liga game between Rayo Vallecano de Madrid and Real Sociedad de Fútbol, scheduled for April 26 at 8:00 AM ET:
This market will resolve to "Over" if Rayo Vallecano de Madrid and Real Sociedad de Fútbol combine to score 2 or more goals in this game.
If the combined total is less than 2, this market will resolve to "Under".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50.
If the game is started but not completed, this market will resolve according to the official final score published on laliga.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. market_id: 1966887 res_data: p1: 0, p2: 1, p3: 0.5. Where p1 corresponds to Under, p2 to Over, p3 to unknown/50-50. Updates made by the question creator via the bulletin board at 0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7 as described by https://polygonscan.com/tx/0xa14f01b115c4913624fc3f508f960f4dea252758e73c28f5f07f8e19d7bca066 should be considered.,initializer:91430cad2d3975766499717fa0d66a78d814e5c5