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Polygon disputes that escalated to the Ethereum-mainnet UMA DVM. Each links a Polygon dispute to the L1 vote that decided it — and surfaces how concentrated that deciding vote was.
| Market / questionId | Revealed weight (UMA) | Voters | Top-5 share | HHI | Pivotal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? | 227 167.674 426 | 3 | 100.0% | 0.402 | 3 | → |
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 16? | 1 044.510 385 | 4 | 100.0% | 0.279 | 2 | → |
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on April 13? | 102.984 850 | 2 | 100.0% | 0.556 | 2 | → |
Will Kelda Roys win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? | 134 121.657 904 | 2 | 100.0% | 0.94 | 2 | → |
RB Leipzig vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 4.5 | 40.000 000 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 1 | → |
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5 | 140 398.922 093 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 1 | → |
Will Alex Palou win the 2026 Indianapolis 500? | 181.269 954 | 3 | 100.0% | 0.412 | 3 | → |
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $155-$160 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 30 – Apr 3? | 23 104.426 848 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 1 | → |
Ermedin Demirović: 2+ shots | 433.691 336 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 1 | → |
Will Ryan Hunter-Reay win the 2026 Indianapolis 500? | 181.269 954 | 3 | 100.0% | 0.412 | 3 | → |
Will Rafael Belaúnde Llosa win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | 6 211.669 400 | 2 | 100.0% | 0.998 | 1 | → |
FK Dynamo Kyiv vs. FK Karpaty Lviv: Both Teams to Score | 70.296 052 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 1 | → |
Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in May? | 1.404 181 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 1 | → |
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? | 4 623.587 833 | 4 | 100.0% | 0.318 | 4 | → |
Huergo/Radisic vs. Gorgodze/Karamoko: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 | 433.691 336 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 1 | → |
Sweeny vs. Wu: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 | 2 053.068 026 | 2 | 100.0% | 0.5 | 2 | → |
Will Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV in May? | 1 334.251 318 | 3 | 100.0% | 0.713 | 2 | → |
Will Offensive tackle (OT) be the most drafted position in the 1st round of the 2026 NFL Draft? | 23 502.916 552 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 1 | → |
Will Trump speak to Yoon Suk Yeol in May? | 4.926 627 | 3 | 100.0% | 0.337 | 3 | → |
Busan IPark vs. Suwon Bluewings: O/U 8.5 Total Corners | 0.201 344 | 2 | 100.0% | 0.5 | 2 | → |
Will Mikes Evans play for New York Giants in 2026-27? | 113.000 000 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 1 | → |
Game 3: Any Player Penta Kill? | 5.360 000 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 1 | → |
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on March 14? | 200.904 000 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 1 | → |
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev? | 68.738 365 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 1 | → |
Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in May? | 3.687 046 | 3 | 100.0% | 0.342 | 2 | → |
Will the third-place match be FRA vs ARG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 2 005.383 831 | 2 | 100.0% | 0.685 | 2 | → |
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 223.480 735 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 1 | → |
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1? | 5 460.591 683 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 1 | → |
Will Tim Cook say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on June 8th? | 661.055 511 | 2 | 100.0% | 0.554 | 2 | → |
Will Hull City AFC vs. Southampton FC end in a draw? | 49.282 110 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 1 | → |
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? | 466 996.720 674 | 4 | 100.0% | 0.995 | 4 | → |
Medvedeva vs. Figueras: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 | 163 953.907 670 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 1 | → |
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on April 16? | 10.200 000 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 1 | → |
Will Ferrari have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? | 181.269 954 | 3 | 100.0% | 0.412 | 3 | → |
Game Handicap: Pesternikov Denys (-1.5) vs Shcherbak Denys (+1.5) | 7 374.955 750 | 2 | 100.0% | 0.624 | 2 | → |
Game 3: Any Player Quadra Kill? | 5.360 000 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 1 | → |
Shamrock Rovers FC vs. Ararat-Armenia FA: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners | 0.062 349 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 1 | → |
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | 291 398.046 185 | 3 | 100.0% | 0.876 | 2 | → |
Will Silver (SI) settle at $100-$115 in June? | 62 134.567 588 | 2 | 100.0% | 0.997 | 2 | → |
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Nantes: O/U 1.5 | 2 053.068 026 | 2 | 100.0% | 0.5 | 2 | → |
Set 1 Winner: Arseneault vs Martin | 9.262 292 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 1 | → |
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5 | 565.360 408 | 2 | 100.0% | 0.643 | 2 | → |
Epstein client list released by June 30? | 5.360 000 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 1 | → |
Medvedeva vs. Figueras: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 | 163 953.907 670 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 1 | → |
Will Graham Rahal win the 2026 Indianapolis 500? | 181.269 954 | 3 | 100.0% | 0.412 | 3 | → |
Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in May? | 1.753 566 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 1 | → |
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on May 27? | 260.729 721 | 2 | 100.0% | 0.804 | 2 | → |
Will Player G win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | 1 057.090 621 | 2 | 100.0% | 0.91 | 2 | → |
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5 | 81.269 954 | 2 | 100.0% | 0.533 | 2 | → |
Game 2: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? | 5.360 000 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 1 | → |