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Polygon disputes that escalated to the Ethereum-mainnet UMA DVM. Each links a Polygon dispute to the L1 vote that decided it — and surfaces how concentrated that deciding vote was.
Of 2,746 reconciled disputes, 1,745 carry revealed vote weight; 1,001 carry no revealed vote weight — either every reveal in that round carried UMA's abstain/spam sentinel (which the DVM itself disregards), or the mainnet reveals for that round were not matched by this indexer. Concentration metrics are unavailable for those disputes either way.
| Market / questionId | Revealed weight (UMA) | Voters | Top-5 share | HHI | Pivotal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? | 227 167.674 426 | 3 | 100.0% | 0.402 | 3 | → |
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 16? | 1 044.510 385 | 4 | 100.0% | 0.279 | 2 | → |
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on March 14? | 200.904 000 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 1 | → |
Set Handicap: Petros Tsitsipas (-1.5) vs Rodrigo Alujas (+1.5) | 2 183.889 257 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 1 | → |
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on April 13? | 102.984 850 | 2 | 100.0% | 0.556 | 2 | → |
Will Kelda Roys win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? | 134 121.657 904 | 2 | 100.0% | 0.94 | 2 | → |
RB Leipzig vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 4.5 | 40.000 000 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 1 | → |
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on March 14? | 200.904 000 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 1 | → |
0x03adac74…657010untitled | 181.269 954 | 3 | 100.0% | 0.412 | 3 | → |
Exact Score: Any Other Score? | 52.674 315 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 1 | → |
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Rounds? | 454.625 597 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 1 | → |
Chiefs vs. Raiders: O/U 24.5 | 2 025.284 646 | 2 | 100.0% | 0.5 | 2 | → |
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5 | 140 398.922 093 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 1 | → |
Valorant: Cloud9 vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Omega | 4 166.041 891 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 1 | → |
Will Alex Palou win the 2026 Indianapolis 500? | 181.269 954 | 3 | 100.0% | 0.412 | 3 | → |
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)? | 220.920 000 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 1 | → |
Timberwolves vs. Pacers: O/U 234.5 | 31 450.991 508 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 1 | → |
Ermedin Demirović: 2+ shots | 433.691 336 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 1 | → |
Will Ryan Hunter-Reay win the 2026 Indianapolis 500? | 181.269 954 | 3 | 100.0% | 0.412 | 3 | → |
Will Rafael Belaúnde Llosa win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | 6 211.669 400 | 2 | 100.0% | 0.998 | 1 | → |
FK Dynamo Kyiv vs. FK Karpaty Lviv: Both Teams to Score | 70.296 052 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 1 | → |
Boston Legacy FC vs. Orlando Pride: O/U 3.5 | 52.674 315 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 1 | → |
Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in May? | 232.496 823 | 3 | 100.0% | 0.975 | 2 | → |
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? | 4 623.587 833 | 4 | 100.0% | 0.318 | 4 | → |
Huergo/Radisic vs. Gorgodze/Karamoko: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 | 433.691 336 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 1 | → |
Sweeny vs. Wu: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 | 2 053.068 026 | 2 | 100.0% | 0.5 | 2 | → |
Will David Autor win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? | 1 981.497 256 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 1 | → |
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on March 14? | 200.904 000 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 1 | → |
Will Christian Lundgaard win the 2026 Indianapolis 500? | 181.269 954 | 3 | 100.0% | 0.412 | 3 | → |
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on March 14? | 200.904 000 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 1 | → |
Game 3: Any Player Penta Kill? | 5.360 000 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 1 | → |
Sweeny vs. Wu: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 | 2 053.068 026 | 2 | 100.0% | 0.5 | 2 | → |
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on March 14? | 200.904 000 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 1 | → |
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev? | 68.738 365 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 1 | → |
Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in May? | 234.740 479 | 5 | 100.0% | 0.957 | 4 | → |
Will the third-place match be FRA vs ARG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 2 005.383 831 | 2 | 100.0% | 0.685 | 2 | → |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 14? | 200.904 000 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 1 | → |
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 223.480 735 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 1 | → |
Exact Score: Boston Legacy FC 3 - 3 Orlando Pride? | 52.674 315 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 1 | → |
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 43 744.420 122 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 1 | → |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 14? | 200.904 000 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 1 | → |
Will Tim Cook say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on June 8th? | 661.055 511 | 2 | 100.0% | 0.554 | 2 | → |
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 15? | 52.674 315 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 1 | → |
Will Hull City AFC vs. Southampton FC end in a draw? | 49.282 110 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 1 | → |
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? | 466 996.720 674 | 4 | 100.0% | 0.995 | 4 | → |
Medvedeva vs. Figueras: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 | 163 953.907 670 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 1 | → |
Will Scott Dixon win the 2026 Indianapolis 500? | 181.269 954 | 3 | 100.0% | 0.412 | 3 | → |
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on April 16? | 10.200 000 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 1 | → |
Will Ferrari have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? | 181.269 954 | 3 | 100.0% | 0.412 | 3 | → |
Timberwolves vs. Pacers: O/U 238.5 | 31 450.991 508 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 1 | → |