Getting started

How to use this dashboard

A read-only, on-chain analytics layer for Polymarket — it helps you screen which markets look healthy and which resolutions can be trusted, straight from indexed contract events.

Every number here is derived from raw on-chain resolution, trading, and dispute-vote events — not a third-party API. The dashboard answers, per market, “how likely is this to resolve cleanly and fairly, how healthy is its trading, and who decides if it’s contested?” It is descriptive, never predictive — a screening input, not a recommendation.

Where to start

ordered by usefulness when sizing up a market

Market HealthF4 · open markets

Is this market healthy to trade right now? — liquidity thinness, how concentrated volume is across wallets, and whether the final window saw a one-sided buying spike.

WatchLate-buy spikeia recent concentrated, one-sided surge (a caution, not proof)Median impactihigh = thin, price moves a lot per dollarVolume Top-5 / HHIihigh = a few wallets dominate the flow

Risky MarketsF1 · resolution risk

Will this market resolve cleanly and fairly? — a transparent 0–100 score from seven on-chain factors (disputes, resets, resolution lag, clarifications, late-buy, divergence).

WatchResolution Risk Scoreithe headline 0–100 (higher = more contested/delayed)disputedithe heaviest factor (was it ever formally disputed)Reset roundsihow many times resolution was reset

Calibration / DivergenceF5 · resolved markets

Do closing prices on this kind of market usually match the outcome? — the track record: realized YES-rate vs. the price markets closed at, plus a Brier score.

WatchBrier scoreioverall calibration quality (lower = better)Divergenceiper-market: how wrong the closing price was (0 ≈ right)Reliability curveiwhere the market over- or under-priced outcomes

Mispricing / ArbitrageF3 · NegRisk sets

Do an event's mutually-exclusive outcome prices add up to ~$1.00? — the sets that are internally inconsistent, ranked by the size of the implied gap.

Watchdeviation (¢)ihow far the set's prices are from a fair $1.00within-tolerancei✓ when |deviation| ≤ 2¢, else ✗Σ impliedithe summed implied probability of the outcomes

All Marketsbrowse · grouped by event

Browse markets grouped into the Polymarket events they belong to, then drill into an event's member markets.

WatchEvent stateiALL-OPEN / has-RESOLVED / has-DISPUTEDΣ implied · deviationithe F3 mispricing readout inside each eventMember countihow many outcome markets the event spans

Dispute VotesF2 · cross-chain

When a market was disputed, who decided it? — each Polygon dispute linked to the Ethereum-mainnet UMA vote that resolved it, with how concentrated that vote was.

WatchTop-5 share / HHIihow concentrated the deciding vote wasPivotalihow few top voters could have flipped the outcomeRevealing votersihow many distinct voters cast the round

Whale LeaderboardF2 · voters

Which voters carry the most weight across disputed resolutions, and how often they land on the winning side.

WatchCumulative weightitotal revealed stake across all roundsWinning-side rateihow often they backed the winning sideCOIiexact-address-only conflict flag (best-effort)

Trends & Time-seriessystem-level

How contested-resolution volume, vote concentration, and NegRisk mispricing have moved over time.

WatchContested-resolution volumeidisputes escalated per weekVoter concentrationimean top-5 vote share over timeNegRisk mispricingiweekly drift of Σp from $1.00

Where the data comes from

how the dataset behind every metric is produced

The dashboard reads raw on-chain events directly from the blockchain — the actual resolution, trading, and dispute-vote logs — not a third-party API or a hosted subgraph.
Two independent SQD (Subsquid) indexersrun in parallel: one on Polygon (Polymarket’s markets, trades, and resolution / dispute events) and one on Ethereum mainnet (where the UMA dispute-resolution votes are decided). The headline capability is the cross-chain dispute-vote reconciliation that links a Polygon dispute to the Ethereum vote that settled it.
A separate off-chain worker runs periodic background jobs that enrich and aggregate the indexed data — computing the derived scores (risk, health, calibration, mispricing, concentration) and pulling in supplementary off-chain context like market titles — on a recurring schedule, so the numbers refresh as new blocks and jobs land.

For a single shareable snapshot of the whole picture, the Resolution Trust Report stitches these signals into one scrollable page. Each metric page also has an “ⓘ How this page is calculated” panel under its title with the exact formula.

Read these honestly

Concentration and winning-side dominance reflect dominance under a Schelling-point oracle, not proof of manipulation. Wallet concentration is over proxy wallets, not unique humans. Health signals come from executed fills, not resting order-book depth. Mispricing is an implied-price deviation, not an executable, fee-free arbitrage. This is a research / analytics tool — not financial advice.