P(realized winner): winner-referenced closing VWAP over executed fills, not order-book depth
Outcome
YES
Divergence
—
|pClose − y|
Brier contribution
—
Resolution lag— (expected on upsets / thin markets)
pClose is a closing VWAP over executed fills, not order-book depth. A high resolution-lag null-rate is expected (upsets / thin markets).
Resolution criteria
ancillaryText · rendered from on-chain ancillaryData
q: title: Will Dow Jones (DJIA) close over 44,500 on Friday of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?, description: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Dow Jones (DJIA) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday) is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Dow Jones (DJIA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DJIA/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Note: Dow Jones (DJI) is represented by ^DJI on Yahoo Finance. market_id: 1542769 res_data: p1: 0, p2: 1, p3: 0.5. Where p1 corresponds to No, p2 to Yes, p3 to unknown/50-50. Updates made by the question creator via the bulletin board at 0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7 as described by https://polygonscan.com/tx/0xa14f01b115c4913624fc3f508f960f4dea252758e73c28f5f07f8e19d7bca066 should be considered.,initializer:91430cad2d3975766499717fa0d66a78d814e5c5
Market health
F4 · trading microstructure
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No trading-health data
No DerivedMarketHealth row — microstructure not yet computed for this market.