P(realized winner): winner-referenced closing VWAP over executed fills, not order-book depth
Outcome
YES
Divergence
—
|pClose − y|
Brier contribution
—
Resolution lag— (expected on upsets / thin markets)
pClose is a closing VWAP over executed fills, not order-book depth. A high resolution-lag null-rate is expected (upsets / thin markets).
Resolution criteria
ancillaryText · rendered from on-chain ancillaryData
q: title: Total Kills Over/Under 48.5 in Game 2?, description: In the upcoming Upper bracket semifinal 2 match between Team Spirit and Aurora in the DreamLeague Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 21 at 1:20PM ET:
This market is about the total kills in Game 2.
This market will resolve to "Over" if the total kills in Game 2 is 49 or more. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under".
If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If Game 2 is never played due to forfeit, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If Game 2 begins but is not completed, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If Game 2 is remade, resolution will be based on the total kills in the remade game only.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
In Dota 2, a "kill" for markets like team total kills, kill handicap, and interval kills is counted when an enemy hero dies and the game awards a hero kill event to the opposing team's score, which is the number shown on the in-game scoreboard and tracked in scoreboard feeds as team kills. In practical terms, this includes any enemy hero death that increments a team's kill score, regardless of who got the last hit, including situations where the victim dies to creeps, a tower, or neutrals as long as the kill is still credited to the enemy team. It does not include denies, such as killing your own allied units, and it also does not include building or objective destructions like towers, barracks, or Roshan, since those are tracked separately from kills. Assists also do not count as kills, because they are recorded as a separate player stat and multiple players can assist on a single kill. market_id: 2324515 res_data: p1: 0, p2: 1, p3: 0.5. Where p1 corresponds to Under, p2 to Over, p3 to unknown/50-50. Updates made by the question creator via the bulletin board at 0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7 as described by https://polygonscan.com/tx/0xa14f01b115c4913624fc3f508f960f4dea252758e73c28f5f07f8e19d7bca066 should be considered.,initializer:91430cad2d3975766499717fa0d66a78d814e5c5