P(realized winner): winner-referenced closing VWAP over executed fills, not order-book depth
Outcome
NO
Divergence
0.43
|pClose − y|
Brier contribution
0.182
Resolution lag— (expected on upsets / thin markets)
pClose is a closing VWAP over executed fills, not order-book depth. A high resolution-lag null-rate is expected (upsets / thin markets).
Resolution criteria
ancillaryText · rendered from on-chain ancillaryData
q: title: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5, description: In the upcoming MLB game between the St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers, scheduled for May 25 at 2:10 PM ET:
This market will resolve to "Over" if the St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers combine to score 7 or more runs in this game.
If the combined total is less than 7, this market will resolve to "Under".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game.
The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. market_id: 2349043 res_data: p1: 0, p2: 1, p3: 0.5. Where p1 corresponds to Under, p2 to Over, p3 to unknown/50-50. Updates made by the question creator via the bulletin board at 0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7 as described by https://polygonscan.com/tx/0xa14f01b115c4913624fc3f508f960f4dea252758e73c28f5f07f8e19d7bca066 should be considered.,initializer:f43d55f3a8b7484ed4b6931f93cb6f9ef5dd369d