P(realized winner): winner-referenced closing VWAP over executed fills, not order-book depth
Outcome
NO
Divergence
—
|pClose − y|
Brier contribution
—
Resolution lag— (expected on upsets / thin markets)
pClose is a closing VWAP over executed fills, not order-book depth. A high resolution-lag null-rate is expected (upsets / thin markets).
Market health
F4 · trading microstructure
Resolution criteria
ancillaryText · rendered from on-chain ancillaryData
q: title: Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on July 29?, description: This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered. market_id: 3142230 res_data: p1: 0, p2: 1, p3: 0.5. Where p1 corresponds to No, p2 to Yes, p3 to unknown. This request MUST only resolve to p1 or p2. Updates made by the question creator via the bulletin board at 0x69c47De9D4D3Dad79590d61b9e05918E03775f24 should be considered.,initializer:ac9930b2ae455a671b62de86876a7e8587825294
Late-buy spike
no
spike — · one-sided 1.00
Median price impact
0.000
executed fills, not resting book depth
Volume concentration
top-5 100%
top-10 100% · HHI 0.50
Final-window concentration
1.00
proxy wallets, not unique humans
Concentration is over proxy wallets (Gnosis Safe), not unique humans.
Microstructure is derived from executed on-chain fills, not order-book depth.
A flag is a microstructure pattern — NOT proof of manipulation.
✓
No disputes recorded
This market has no on-chain dispute, reset, or DVM escalation on record.