P(realized winner): winner-referenced closing VWAP over executed fills, not order-book depth
Outcome
YES
Divergence
—
|pClose − y|
Brier contribution
—
Resolution lag— (expected on upsets / thin markets)
pClose is a closing VWAP over executed fills, not order-book depth. A high resolution-lag null-rate is expected (upsets / thin markets).
Resolution criteria
ancillaryText · rendered from on-chain ancillaryData
q: title: Will Tim Cook say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on June 8th?, description: Tim Cook is scheduled to participate in an event, "Apple WWDC 2026" on June 8, 2026, 1 PM ET (see: https://developer.apple.com/wwdc26/schedule/)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tim Cook says the listed term at any point during the event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
If clips or prerecorded videos are aired where Tim Cook is speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution.
AI-generated audio or video will count toward this market's resolution.
Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.
Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
Censored instances of a given term that cannot be heard in full will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
If the event is definitively cancelled or otherwise is not released by June 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution. market_id: 2429518 res_data: p1: 0, p2: 1, p3: 0.5. Where p1 corresponds to No, p2 to Yes, p3 to unknown/50-50. Updates made by the question creator via the bulletin board at 0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7 as described by https://polygonscan.com/tx/0xa14f01b115c4913624fc3f508f960f4dea252758e73c28f5f07f8e19d7bca066 should be considered.,initializer:f43d55f3a8b7484ed4b6931f93cb6f9ef5dd369d