P(realized winner): winner-referenced closing VWAP over executed fills, not order-book depth
Outcome
NO
Divergence
—
|pClose − y|
Brier contribution
—
Resolution lag— (expected on upsets / thin markets)
pClose is a closing VWAP over executed fills, not order-book depth. A high resolution-lag null-rate is expected (upsets / thin markets).
Resolution criteria
ancillaryText · rendered from on-chain ancillaryData
q: title: Will the third-place match be FRA vs ARG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?, description: This market will resolve in favor of the 2026 FIFA World Cup 3rd Place Game matchup determined by the teams that advance from the Semifinals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed matchup to occur in the 2026 FIFA World Cup (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup 3rd Place Game matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. market_id: 2849806 res_data: p1: 0, p2: 1, p3: 0.5. Where p1 corresponds to No, p2 to Yes, p3 to unknown. This request MUST only resolve to p1 or p2. Updates made by the question creator via the bulletin board at 0x69c47De9D4D3Dad79590d61b9e05918E03775f24 should be considered.,initializer:f43d55f3a8b7484ed4b6931f93cb6f9ef5dd369d