P(realized winner): winner-referenced closing VWAP over executed fills, not order-book depth
Outcome
YES
Divergence
—
|pClose − y|
Brier contribution
—
Resolution lag— (expected on upsets / thin markets)
pClose is a closing VWAP over executed fills, not order-book depth. A high resolution-lag null-rate is expected (upsets / thin markets).
Resolution criteria
ancillaryText · rendered from on-chain ancillaryData
q: title: Will the price of Solana be above $30 on March 14?, description: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for SOL/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the SOL/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOL_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance SOL/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source. market_id: 1525098 res_data: p1: 0, p2: 1, p3: 0.5. Where p1 corresponds to No, p2 to Yes, p3 to unknown/50-50. Updates made by the question creator via the bulletin board at 0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7 as described by https://polygonscan.com/tx/0xa14f01b115c4913624fc3f508f960f4dea252758e73c28f5f07f8e19d7bca066 should be considered.,initializer:91430cad2d3975766499717fa0d66a78d814e5c5
Market health
F4 · trading microstructure
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No trading-health data
No DerivedMarketHealth row — microstructure not yet computed for this market.