P(realized winner): winner-referenced closing VWAP over executed fills, not order-book depth
Outcome
YES
Divergence
1.00
|pClose − y|
Brier contribution
0.998
Resolution lag— (expected on upsets / thin markets)
pClose is a closing VWAP over executed fills, not order-book depth. A high resolution-lag null-rate is expected (upsets / thin markets).
Resolution criteria
ancillaryText · rendered from on-chain ancillaryData
q: title: Sweeny vs. Wu: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5, description: This market refers to the tennis match between Dane Sweeny and Tung-Lin Wu in the Gwangju, originally scheduled for April 21, 2026 at 1:00AM ET.
This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in the first set equals or exceeds 9. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under."
Any first-set tiebreak counts as one (1) game toward the total.
If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins, or delayed beyond 7 days without commencement, this market will also resolve 50-50.
Resolution will be based on official Challenger results. market_id: 2035525 res_data: p1: 0, p2: 1, p3: 0.5. Where p1 corresponds to Under, p2 to Over, p3 to unknown/50-50. Updates made by the question creator via the bulletin board at 0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7 as described by https://polygonscan.com/tx/0xa14f01b115c4913624fc3f508f960f4dea252758e73c28f5f07f8e19d7bca066 should be considered.,initializer:91430cad2d3975766499717fa0d66a78d814e5c5