P(realized winner): winner-referenced closing VWAP over executed fills, not order-book depth
Outcome
NO
Divergence
—
|pClose − y|
Brier contribution
—
Resolution lag— (expected on upsets / thin markets)
pClose is a closing VWAP over executed fills, not order-book depth. A high resolution-lag null-rate is expected (upsets / thin markets).
Resolution criteria
ancillaryText · rendered from on-chain ancillaryData
q: title: Will Rafael Belaúnde Llosa win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?, description: General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election.
This market includes any potential second round.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Elections Jury of Peru (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones) (portal.jne.gob.pe/portal). market_id: 947284 res_data: p1: 0, p2: 1, p3: 0.5. Where p1 corresponds to No, p2 to Yes, p3 to unknown. This request MUST only resolve to p1 or p2. Updates made by the question creator via the bulletin board at 0x2F5e3684cb1F318ec51b00Edba38d79Ac2c0aA9d should be considered.,initializer:91430cad2d3975766499717fa0d66a78d814e5c5
Market health
F4 · trading microstructure
—
No trading-health data
No DerivedMarketHealth row — microstructure not yet computed for this market.