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Is Polymarket actually accurate? Realized YES rate vs the price the market closed at, per probability bucket — the reliability curve, plus per-market divergence and Brier contribution.
| # | Market / questionId | pClose | Outcome | Divergence | Brier | Res. lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | 0.00 | YES | 1.00 ⚠ | 0.998 | — | |
| 02 | 0.00 | YES | 1.00 ⚠ | 0.998 | — | |
| 03 | 0.00 | NO | 1.00 ⚠ | 0.998 | — | |
| 04 | 0.00 | YES | 1.00 ⚠ | 0.998 | — | |
| 05 | 0.00 | NO | 1.00 ⚠ | 0.998 | — | |
| 06 | 0.00 | YES | 1.00 ⚠ | 0.998 | — | |
| 07 | 0.00 | YES | 1.00 ⚠ | 0.998 | — | |
| 08 | 0.00 | YES | 1.00 ⚠ | 0.998 | — | |
| 09 | 0.00 | NO | 1.00 ⚠ | 0.998 | — | |
| 10 | 0.00 | NO | 1.00 ⚠ | 0.998 | — | |
| 11 | 0.00 | NO | 1.00 ⚠ | 0.998 | — | |
| 12 | 0.00 | YES | 1.00 ⚠ | 0.998 | — | |
| 13 | 0.00 | NO | 1.00 ⚠ | 0.998 | — | |
| 14 | 0.00 | NO | 1.00 ⚠ | 0.998 | — | |
| 15 | 0.00 | NO | 1.00 ⚠ | 0.998 | — | |
| 16 | 0.00 | YES | 1.00 ⚠ | 0.998 | — | |
| 17 | 0.00 | NO | 1.00 ⚠ | 0.998 | — | |
| 18 | 0.00 | NO | 1.00 ⚠ | 0.998 | — | |
| 19 | 0.00 | NO | 1.00 ⚠ | 0.998 | — | |
| 20 | 0.00 | NO | 1.00 ⚠ | 0.998 | — | |
| 21 | 0.00 | NO | 1.00 ⚠ | 0.998 | — | |
| 22 | 0.00 | NO | 1.00 ⚠ | 0.998 | — | |
| 23 | 0.00 | YES | 1.00 ⚠ | 0.998 | — | |
| 24 | 0.00 | NO | 1.00 ⚠ | 0.998 | — | |
| 25 | 0.00 | YES | 1.00 ⚠ | 0.998 | — | |
| 26 | 0.00 | NO | 1.00 ⚠ | 0.998 | — | |
| 27 | 0.00 | YES | 1.00 ⚠ | 0.998 | — | |
| 28 | 0.00 | YES | 1.00 ⚠ | 0.998 | — | |
| 29 | 0.00 | NO | 1.00 ⚠ | 0.998 | — | |
| 30 | 0.00 | NO | 1.00 ⚠ | 0.998 | — | |
| 31 | 0.00 | YES | 1.00 ⚠ | 0.998 | — | |
| 32 | 0.00 | NO | 1.00 ⚠ | 0.998 | — | |
| 33 | 0.00 | NO | 1.00 ⚠ | 0.998 | — | |
| 34 | 0.00 | NO | 1.00 ⚠ | 0.998 | — | |
| 35 | 0.00 | NO | 1.00 ⚠ | 0.998 | — | |
| 36 | 0.00 | NO | 1.00 ⚠ | 0.998 | — | |
| 37 | 0.00 | YES | 1.00 ⚠ | 0.998 | — | |
| 38 | 0.00 | YES | 1.00 ⚠ | 0.998 | — | |
| 39 | 0.00 | NO | 1.00 ⚠ | 0.998 | — | |
| 40 | 0.00 | YES | 1.00 ⚠ | 0.998 | — | |
| 41 | 0.00 | NO | 1.00 ⚠ | 0.998 | — | |
| 42 | 0.00 | NO | 1.00 ⚠ | 0.998 | — | |
| 43 | 0.00 | YES | 1.00 ⚠ | 0.998 | — | |
| 44 | 0.00 | NO | 1.00 ⚠ | 0.998 | — | |
| 45 | 0.00 | YES | 1.00 ⚠ | 0.998 | — | |
| 46 | 0.00 | YES | 1.00 ⚠ | 0.998 | — | |
| 47 | 0.00 | YES | 1.00 ⚠ | 0.998 | — | |
| 48 | 0.00 | YES | 1.00 ⚠ | 0.998 | — | |
| 49 | 0.00 | YES | 1.00 ⚠ | 0.998 | — | |
| 50 | 0.00 | YES | 1.00 ⚠ | 0.998 | — |