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Polygon disputes that escalated to the Ethereum-mainnet UMA DVM. Each links a Polygon dispute to the L1 vote that decided it — and surfaces how concentrated that deciding vote was.
| Market / questionId | Revealed weight (UMA) | Voters | Top-5 share | HHI | Pivotal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Will Kazem Gharibabadi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | 1 137.347 198 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 1 | → |
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? | 2 029.454 547 | 3 | 100.0% | 0.533 | 3 | → |
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | 2 744.415 804 | 4 | 100.0% | 0.353 | 1 | → |
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31? | 2 058 747.792 273 | 302 | 81.5% | 0.309 | 299 | → |
Someone else announced as next James Bond? | 259 762.989 556 | 73 | 73.8% | 0.487 | 71 | → |
0x92e41eb6…826574untitled | 18 691 534.509 274 | 362 | 41.2% | 0.053 | 47 | → |
Exact Score: Caracas FC 1 - 3 Botafogo FR? | 18 836 442.280 845 | 568 | 41.1% | 0.052 | 566 | → |
Exact Score: Caracas FC 3 - 1 Botafogo FR? | 18 898 442.791 349 | 629 | 41.0% | 0.052 | 464 | → |
Will "In the Grey" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 3.5m? | 19 028 801.066 231 | 570 | 40.9% | 0.053 | 75 | → |
Will "In the Grey" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 3.5m? | 19 028 801.109 297 | 570 | 40.9% | 0.053 | 107 | → |
Will another candidate win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Primary | 19 382 472.874 533 | 559 | 40.3% | 0.051 | 70 | → |
Exact Score: Any Other Score? | 19 433 395.458 200 | 605 | 39.9% | 0.05 | 585 | → |
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding? | 327 213.580 041 | 307 | 4.5% | 0.004 | 307 | → |